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Published 10.05.2015 | Author : admin | Category : Things Guys Love

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The final tally across all of our held parliamentary seats is Lib Dem 30%, Con 27%, Ukip 17%, Lab 15%.
Our vote share in these parliamentary seats continues to be out in front, with the largest vote share across the country in constituencies like Westmorland, Bristol West, North Cornwall Eastbourne and Colchester. Cheltenham – gaining two councillors and winning 43.2% vote share – up more than 5% on 2009. Lib Dems in Cambridgeshire have toppled the Conservative leader of Cambridgeshire County Council.
In the south we are taking two wards off the Tories in Abingdon – Abingdon South and Abingdon East. In a number of our Parliamentary seats we have extended our lead, increasing our vote share over the Tories in in parliamentary seats such as Mid Dorset & North Poole, Eastbourne and Cheltenham. Surely the vote tally in local elections in Lib Dem held parliamentary seats would be pretty meaningless even in the absence of the UKIP factor. On top of that, if it’s true that the Lib Dems have suffered least from the UKIP surge, then that is actually an additional cause for concern. Now there are dodgy bar charts and dodgy bar charts… but the party claiming that Labour suffered the most from UKIP? I can only assume someone matched the national share of the vote against the share of the vote in this election, which was primarily across the shires where elections were held and not in Labour heartlands. Of course it is the licence of the party to spin the result in its favour – but I hope Lib Dem members are not fooled such stuff.
It was a bad result for the Lib Dems, but if we can hold onto most of our MPs while carrying the can clearing up Labour’s dreadful economic meltdown at a time when neighbouring economies are in tailspin, then I think we are holding our own. The worrying thing for me is that it is likely to lead to a strategy of putting all of the party’s resources into protecting our MPs and post-2015 the party will be even more centred around those at the top who are the reason I will no longer vote for it. I’m afraid I partly agree with Mac, though he too is whistling in the dark in his assessment of how Labour are doing. As a footnote: we may still have outpolled the Tories in Winchester, but they took two seats from us on Thursday and UKIP took the Winchester ward of another.
Whilst understanding you wish to portray the party as having not done as bady as they have, please at least try to be honest.
But doesn’t the fact that the turnout was low make the Lib Dem vote share of 1.4% even worse? And why should the Lib Dems have been squeezed at all in a contest in which the result was a foregone conclusion? That’s why psephologists are generally more trusted with their judgements than the rest of us. I’ll point out that I know people who asked whether they could go and volunteer in South Shields and were actively told by the local campaign team not to bother as it was an incredibly low priority.
Personally I think it was a mistake not to put any effort into South Shields (other than the candidate who ran everything from the boot of his car) but such a dismal result isn’t surprising when we were actively turning away people who wanted to help. Of course e the real problem that Mark Pack’s bar chart shows is that the Lib Dems have lost another 2% of their vote from last year, on top of all the losses in previous years. Considering these elections took place in Tory heartlands, Labour did fairly well all in all. I think it is pretty safe to say when local elections come up in Labour stronghold in May 2014, The Liberal Democrats will take a beating from Labour.
This will put Labour in a pretty strong position for the 2015 General Elections, Whilst the Liberal Democrats grassroots would have been pretty much decimated. However, thank you for your balanced and reasonable response to Labour’s achievements. If you want to stop your grassroots being decimated I suggest that as good Europeans you get out of the coalition and join the pro European Labour Party in opposition to the most xenophobic Tory party we have ever seen. The point I was making was, that I think Labour will be the largest party even if they do not have enough for a total majority. Joe – it would only really be a problem if the Labour Party had held its nerve in1997 and in 2011 and had supported a proportional system. There are two teams who produced their own sets of such national equivalent vote shares each year (and get very similar results each time) and guess who is a leading member of one of them…? The only straw man I can see is claiming that because there are different wards up for ele ction last year and this year you can’t compare what happened to the votes. Perhaps look through the last 40 years of general elections to see that most governments are not voted in by a majority.
However, it does me smile when senior Lib Dems and Tories claim that Labour should be doing better: just how rubbish do they think their own coalition is?
Are these prominent figures all people who joined recently, or did they manage to bury their divisions in the run up to successful elections in 1997, 2001 and 2005?


So even the 30% figure, if replicated in a general election, would imply the loss of a significant number of Lib Dem seats.
Given the economic stagnation, high unemployment, the narrow missing of a triple-dip recession, etc, etc, one would have expected the Labour Party to thoroughly trounce the Tories right across the country.
The Lib Dems have shown that where we work we can just about hold on to what we’ve got. If we want to start winning again, then we have to (1) get out of the coalition and (2) marginalise the Lib Dem right.
I agree with the first point, but it’s hard to disagree with a matter of fact, but surely by the further fact that the other two main parties in government should give Labour more of an opportunity not less. Also, given that the government is having to go through a deeply unpopular series of cuts isn’t that an opportunity for Labour to be doing better? Oh what a load of trolls appear here when what we need is a sensible discussions amongst Liberal Democrats. As for John Curtice, I have found it hard to take him (and his consistent anti-LD bias) seriously after he confidently forecast an SNP gain at the Dunfermline by-eleciton! As for tonyhill’s point, I feel more fuelled as an activist by seeing more Lib Dem policies that I voted for (and in one or two cases wrote) such as equal marriage, tax cuts for low earners, Pupil Premium etc. Reading the runes for signs of comfort is not unusual for any political party but I’m with Tony Hill on this. I’d like to see a graph showing the vote shares in LibDem target seats for comparison. LibDems made gains in a number of areas where local party members support each other and actively campaign on behalf of residents.
The thread above shows there is a divide between commenters who talk about big issues and the rest who engage in community politics to make a real difference on the ground.
The political elite do not decide the legislation Parliament passes or rejects – it is a media-driven myth that consuming news instead of engaging in a positive relationship with your neighbour is good civic practice.
Democracy is about people, so accountability and justice only truly exists in face-to-face situations.
Liberty requires participation to succeed, so we must get out there and talk to more people – on the doorstep, in meetings and at events.
We aren’t just voices shouting in the wind, we are all real people with real concerns.
If you want to see how we did this year compared to last, then comparing national equivalent vote share, which is adjusted to take into account the areas up for election, is sensible. If you want to see how our national vote is holding up against the same round of elections in the last parliament, then a comparison with the 2009 elections is sensible. If you want to see how it’s looking in our held and target seats, then looking at the results in those seats is sensible. The problem for me with the Foot and Kinnock comparisons is the implication that because they both failed in subsequent general elections then so will Milliband. Linking UKIP with the coalition was deliberately mischievous but Lib Dems should bare in mind that the party is perceived to have side-stepped to the right by many former voters, and one of the consequences of Labour falling short because of a UKIP surge is that after 2015 Lib Dems could be in coalition with Tories and a parliamentary UKIP or a Tory party that has embraced UKIP’s policies in order retain their vote.
Secondly, the comparison of local and national vote share doesn’t take account of the extent to which local campaigners are distancing themselves from national politics and getting people to focus on a local vote for their local council. And finally the idea that we are not being affected in our held seats runs counter to the Eastleigh result where we lost about as much vote share (14 points) as in South Shields (13.5 points) . The Kosovo Central Electoral Commission (CIK) confirmed two Serb lists on Wednesday, the final day for submission of applications for local elections in Kosovo-Metohija due on November 3. In the meantime, a campaign against voting in the local elections has been launched and billboards have been set up at several spots in Kosovska Mitrovica whereby the Assembly of the Autonomous Province of Kosovo-Metohija, set up despite Belgrade’s opposition, called on citizens not to vote in the forthcoming elections. The billboards say that voting in the separatist elections constitutes a violation of Serbia’s constitutional order which is why the separatist elections need to be boycotted. Two days ago, CIK decided to change the appearance of the ballot so that it would not contain the symbols of , as Serbia claims, the so-called Republic of Kosovo, which was the primary request Belgrade set so that it could call on Serbs to vote in the November 3 elections.
CIK also extended the deadline for the submission of electoral materials to citizens with residencies outside Kosovo within 14 days, as the previous deadline expired on September 2.
Minister without Portfolio in charge of Kosovo-Metohija Aleksandar Vulin stated that Serb representatives would file a Serb list if they see for themselves that the new materials for the November local elections are status neutral. Also, the list of candidates for six mayors in the municipalities to the south of the Ibar River has been drafted and it is supported by Belgrade. After submitting the lists for local elections in Kosovska Mitrovica, Leposavic and Zvecan to the OSCE, Ivanovic said he expects that he will compete with others in ideas of how to improve the appearance of towns in northern KiM in what he hopes will be a democratic and free campaign.
I am sure there are people who think differently and who will be against the elections until the end, he said, adding that they are entitled to such positions, but do not have the right to use violence and create an atmosphere of insecurity and fear.
Economic growth in Macedonia is picking up, based on continuous industrial growth, which rose to 8,6 percent in September, compared to September 2014. In 2009 the seat was blue, now it is yellow – echoing the strong support received last year in the borough council elections.


There are now a fistful of parliamentary seats we do not hold where we have the highest proportion of vote share – including Winchester, Oxford West and Abingdon, South East Cornwall, St Albans and Watford. In fact, it held onto an already safe seat with a tiny share of eligible voters and failed to reach many of its targets in local elections. Furthermore, If Labour did get back into power, their popularity would disappear overnight as people realised what an awful mistake they had made in voting them back in. Several things have happened in those four years, such as Gordon Brown stepping down as Labour leader, the Lib Dems entering government and so on.
I would sooner trust a professor with judging the information than a blogger with an agenda. If they are short, then it will be by a very minimal amount requiring possibly only the support of the DUP or maybe even plaid. As it is, because of the dodgy system we have for our General Elections, these are the figures we have to care about. It was, as I recall, the Liberal Democrats who were arguing for an in out referendum at the last general Election. John Curtice himself ?? That idea of being able to compare the equivalent national votes shares between adjacent years is at the heart of that very work he does. In bygone days the commanders were taught that when in doubt they should march their troops towards the sound of gunfire. 35% of the vote averaged across all seats is completely different from 30% of the vote averaged across your own seats. Add to that the fact that Lib Dems always poll more strongly in local elections than in Westminster elections, and the possibility that former Tories who voted UKIP this week may return to the fold in a general election, and you’ll see that that bar chart is far from reassuring. If Labour is going to form a majority government in 2015, there are quite a few things they should not have done last Thursday. I also agree the LibDems can’t be complacent – but then again, which political movement or party can be? Yes, Labour have made gains – but they are still at a lower point in terms of the County Councils then they were at any point between 1979-1997 . In Hampshire there was not much to play for where Ukip gained 10 funded partly by the loss of 7 LD seats and 3 Labour gains and even a Tory gain. The appearance of a growing separation between politicians and the public is a reflection of the barrier television, newspapers and the internet creates in humanity.
We are breathing down the necks of the Tory party in these seats and are the only party that can take them. If we can keep a major presence in parliament in 2015 of around 50 MPs, we will be well placed to capitalise on the resulting fallout.
Well because I’ve used the figures those very same psephologists you praise calculate themselves to adjust for exactly that issue of different wards in different years.
Given we are now in a four party situation, the need to win 30% to win a seat is going to be common situation.
What does that make Labour then, seeing as Darling said Labour would need to cut deeper that Thatcher ever did? It is important that we have the state supports us in what we are doing, because without the Republic of Serbia we can hardly count on any survival here,” Ivanovic says. Politics are a confused affair and the fog of political controversy can obscure many issues. Labour have avoded exposing their divisions so far by mouthing platitudes or saying nothing but they cant keep that up all the way to 2015. It was because there was no Lib Dem candidate, and I knew that Labour stood a very good chance of beating the incumbent Tory, which is what happened, by quite a narrow margin. What about Jim Callaghan saying that cutting taxes and increasing spending (as Labour currently propose) isn’t the way to end a recession? Perhaps it had something to do with Labour’s insipid leadership and lack of political drive at Parliamentary level. They should not have failed to make the slightest impact in towns such as Melksham and Westbury, which were Labour strongholds a generation ago. In Bourton-on-the-Water and Northleach, the Lib Dems got 1,275 votes to 1,216 for the Tories. However, I do not infer from that that the whole of the Lib Dems are xenophobic or anti-European. By and large, the Labour performance was weaker than the current political and economic environment would suggest, and remains vulnerable to UKIP hoovering up their disillusioned supporters in places like North Kent.
Labour still has a mountain to climb, and may yet be dependent on the Liberal Democrats to put them in office.



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