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Bob Barker speaks to the studio audience during his last taping of The Price is Right, on June 6, 2007, in Los Angeles. On a crisp November day eight years ago, I took the only sick day of my four years of high school. In the Contestants' Row segment of the show, four lucky people who have been plucked from the audience are asked one by one to guess the price of an item.
If Margie had applied a few principles of game theory, she could have planted a big kiss on Bob Barkera€™s cheek, and maybe have gone home with a€¦ a new car! In one instance, when Margie was the last contestant to bid, she guessed the retail price of an oven was $1,150.
Game theory, by contrast, can increase your chances of success even if you’ve never set foot in a Honda showroom. NOW and THEN is hardly the only contest where game theory can greatly increase your chances.
But you’d be surprised at how often a little game theory can improve your performance on the show.
Unfortunately, once the contestant gets to the Showcase, game theory does not have as much wisdom to offer. The next time you’re under the weather, or just playing hooky, come on down to Slate and use this guide to play along at home and see if you fare better than the Price Is Right contestants. I was laid up with an awful fever, and annoyed that I was missing geometry class, which at the time was the highlight of my day.
But as I watched the venerable game show that morning, it quickly became clear to me that most contestants haven't thought through the structure of the game they’re so excited to be playing.


The contestant whose guess is closest to the actual price, without overbidding, wins the prize and progresses to the more lucrative pricing games where tens of thousands of dollars can be won.
This guide, which conveniently fits on the front and back of an 8.5-by-11-inch piece of paper, does not rely on the prices of items.
Had Margie been able to stumble her way to one of the pricing games, game theory would have been even more useful to her. 3 in Squeeze Play is that the show’s producers are clearly not placing the numbers randomly.
The show makes no promises of behaving like a casino, with perfectly random distribution of numbers. Some have a simple strategy that produces a better projected win percentage than contestants’ current performance. Depends on what you got in your first spin and whether you're the first, second, or third contestant to spin it.
The Big Wheel, for example, may seem like the most random and luck-based aspect of the entire show. Most of the strategies discussed thus far rely on either positioning yourself well compared with other contestants or being smart about guessing between given, nonrandom options. In order for a pattern, such as the one discovered in Squeeze Play, to be noted on the chart, it had to be statistically significant. And if you’re on your way to CBS Television City studio, print out this guide on a piece of paper, or on a T-shirt, for easy reference.
I flipped on the television in the hope of finding some distraction from my woes, but what I found only made me more upset: A contestant named Margie who was in the process of completely bungling her six chances of making it out of Contestants' Row on The Price is Right.
The wrong digit was placed in the third slot 49 percent of the time as compared with 22 percent and 28 percent for the second and fourth, respectively. In other games, there’s a clear pattern or bias, but some knowledge of pricing is useful. In the Showcase, two contestants are shown two packages of prizes and the one who guesses closest to the value of her showcase (without going over) wins.
It could be the difference between coming home with a new dinette set or suffering the sad fate of Margie. It bothered me, as a budding mathematician, that she failed to use basic game theory to help her advance. Since she was the last to bid, she could have guessed $1051, expanding her range by almost $100 (any price from $1051 to $1199 would have made her a winner), with no downside. Contestants are asked to guess whether each of six small prizes, numbered 1–6 and placed in a circle, is labeled with the current NOW price or a THEN price from an earlier date. The discrepancy between the winning digit's location and what we would expect if that digit were placed randomly is statistically significant—meaning the placement is not, actually, random. There is a game called 2 For the Price of 1, where each digit in the price of a three-figure item must be guessed correctly.


And in some games, there is no trick, and no pattern or bias—you really do just need to know your prices. I am indebted to the people who run these sites and have devoted their free time over many years to record this data. For example, in the most recent season of Price Is Right, the Honda Accord LX was valued in different games as $22,587, $22,480 (twice), $22,934, $22,423, $22,791, and $22,841. If the contestant guesses correctly on any three consecutive items, she wins a prize, like a digital piano or a trip to Savannah. Over the last eight years, this game has been played 215 times with a five-digit number, meaning the contestant can either remove the second, third, or fourth digit. Whether the show's producers are intentionally favoring the middle location, or are doing so simply because they’ve failed to simulate randomness, is unclear.
For every digit, contestants choose between two numbers, one placed above it on a top row or one below it on a bottom row.
Although one contestant bids first, she is not bidding on the same item as her competitor, so there is less benefit in going last compared with Contestants' Row or the Big Wheel. Game theory says that when you are last to bid, you should bid one dollar more than the highest bidder.
If every contestant had gone into the game opting to pick the third digit, regardless of the prize or the numbers displayed, the combined contestant winning percentage would have been 49.8 percent. If the game were truly random, the correct digits should come from the same row (either all from the top or all from the bottom) one-in-four times.
In a sample of the last 1,000 games, blindly guessing $20,000 would have resulted in a winning percentage of 54 percent, greater than the winning percentage of 45 that contestants actually have.
You obviously won’t win every time, but in the last 1,500 Contestants' Rows to have aired, had final bidders committed to this strategy, they would have won 54 percent of the time.
In the context of the game, however, these two instances occur less than a combined one-tenth of the time.
Instead, last bidders too often rely on their intuition, or on suggestions called out by delirious audience members. They have largely done so by trying to accurately discern the NOW prices from the THEN prices, but this is the wrong way to approach the game.
Given the limited combinations of NOW and THEN in the six slots, this game is no more complicated than tic-tac-toe and can be won 100 percent of the time, regardless of the contestant’s knowledge of Gold Bond body lotion prices in 1998. Contestants in this sample of 1,500 who guessed a value between the highest and second-highest current guesses, as Margie did, win only 20 percent of the time. Below is the complete decision tree, so you can be assured of fulfilling your lifelong dream of winning a $6,000 digital piano.



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